Time to Move On Without Magglio

Magglio Ordonez provided easily the best baseball experience in the past 24 years for Detroit Tigers' fans. The walk-off home run he hit to win the 2006 ALCS and propel the Tigers into the World Series set off a love fest in Comerica Park. It brought tears to the eyes of any fan that saw it.

In 2005, he signed a mega-deal to play for the Tigers, when no one wanted to play here, and when no one wanted to pay him. Ordonez was coming off an experimental knee surgery, one that he had to have performed in Germany, because no American doctor would do it. The Tigers were just one season removed from the worst record in American League history.

Sadly, the whirlwind romance between Maggs and the Tigers appears to be nearing its end.

Just two years removed from his batting title in 2007, Ordonez has fallen flat. In 2007, he hit .363 with a league leading 54 doubles and an OPS of 1.029. But the numbers declined last season and then the bottom fell out this year.

Entering play today, Magglio is hitting a mere .260, the lowest of his career. He is carrying an OPS of only .663, again the lowest of his career. Ordonez has managed only three home runs and nine doubles in 246 at bats. The former extra base hit machine is now only able to loop soft singles to right, no longer driving the ball to the gaps as he did so often before.

There are other alarming numbers as well. He has grounded into 13 double plays already this year. His defense in right field has been well below league average, and his strikeouts are up, fanning in 16 percent of his at bats, easily the highest rate of his career.

Perhaps the most alarming number, however, is 18. As in the $18 million Magglio is set to earn next season if he reaches certain games played milestones this year.

The Tigers simply cannot afford to allow his option to vest.

When the contract with Magglio was signed prior to the 2005 season, Detroit knew they would have to overpay to acquire the superstar outfielder, and overpay they did. To this point, Magglio has been worth every penny he has received. But the "outs" that were written into the deal regarding the vesting options for 2010 and 2011 were put there to protect the team from having to overpay for an aging veteran, whose health or production might not warrant that kind of money.

When Ordonez was removed from the lineup for six games last month, his agent, Scott Boras, publicly basted the Tigers for the move. It was Boras' contention that Ordonez performance did not warrant the perceived benching. He stated that the replacements Detroit had used were not an upgrade to Ordonez. He later also said that his comments had nothing to do with next season's option on Ordonez's contract. I suspect that Boras was wrong on all accounts.

Lets' start with the contract. The Tigers have already committed to over $84 million in player salaries for next season (Cot's Contracts), not including the $18 million that Ordonez could earn.

Of that total, $47.5 million is committed to DH Carlos Guillen, and pitchers Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Jeremy Bonderman. Considering what the four players listed above have contributed to this year's team (not much), there is little reason to suspect the Tigers will get favorable returns on any of those deals.

You also have to account for significant raises to be given to players in arbitration years. Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, Bobby Seay, and Joel Zumaya all figure to earn much more next year than they have this season. Add in the fact that closer Fernando Rodney will be a free agent, along with second baseman Placido Polanco and shortstop Adam Everett, and you have to expect that money will be spent to fill those holes as well.

But if Ordonez is better than the other options to play right field, I suspect the money wouldn't matter as much. Let's see if Mr. Boras was right about Magglio being the Tigers' best option.

We will look at this season's numbers, because now three months into the season, you have to expect that this is the player you have, and can no longer hope a player will revert to his track record. Ordonez's line is ghastly. .260/.330/.333/.663 is not good for a catcher. It's down right bad for a corner outfielder. Factor in his defense and lack of speed and you have a liability in the lineup.

Detroit has used two players frequently in the outfield that would be suitable replacements for Ordonez; Clete Thomas, and Ryan Raburn.

Thomas, currently in AAA Toledo, saw a great deal of playing time when he was up earlier this year. His major league numbers show an overall upgrade to Ordonez. Thomas had 114 AB's and posted a .237/.315/.412/.727 line this year. While those numbers do not necessarily suggest a huge improvement over Ordonez by themselves, they are better numbers.

Thomas has also hit four home runs and driven in 17 runs this season. He has above average speed, and plays much better defense than Ordonez as well. By contrast, Magglio has just three home runs and 24 RBI in his 248 at bats.

Raburn has seen the bulk of his playing time lately, and has taken advantage of his chance. In 98 at bats this year, Raburn has a line of .265/.351/.480/.831. He has played spotty defense in the outfield, but no worse than that of Ordonez. Raburn has five home runs and 19 RBI thus far, and like Thomas, provides more speed than Ordonez.

It is Raburn's offensive numbers that suggest the biggest reason to remove Ordonez from the lineup, and the biggest reason to exclude that part of Boras' argument.

As the calendar has turned to July, the Tigers remain in first place. That lead seems tenuous at best with the offense struggling to consistently put up runs. Detroit has scored three runs or fewer in better than 45 percent of it's games. (hat tip: Eye of the Tigers)

The Tigers will explore the trade market to try to augment the lack of overall production. The possible return of Carlos Guillen later this month could help, but only if he can regain some of his old form and drive the ball with consistency.

The biggest move the team can make to improve however, is to release Magglio Ordonez. His lack of production this season is a burden that some teams could bear, but not this team, and not with that contract.

If this were a younger Ordonez, with a smaller contract, perhaps the team could wait him out, and hope he returns to form. But he's not younger, and he's not less expensive. The looming payday that Ordonez will receive if he is allowed to continue to play for Detroit could cripple the franchise financially next season more so than the other bad deals detailed above. More so because it can be avoided.

If Ordonez was performing at his usual levels, his contract would be worth the price, his contributions would help the team in their push for the playoffs. But were are nearly half way through the season, and he is not performing. His performance has been a hindrance more than a help. In fact, it's not unfair to say that the Tigers have been a first-place team this year in spite of playing Ordonez as much as they have.

Although Ordonez has offered tremendous moments in years gone by, baseball is about winning. Releasing Ordonez now can only help this team win, both this year and beyond.

Well, Scratch THAT Name Off the List

As the All-Star break draws near, many teams around the league are looking for upgrades. Your Motor City Kitties are no exception. The Tigers need for a another bat has been well chronicled, and many names have been tossed around the blogosphere. Unfortunately, the Tigers failed to pounce on the one name that I would have liked them to target; Eric Hinske.

Today, the Pirates made their annual trade with the Yankees, sending Hinske to New York along with cash for two minor leaguers. You may recall that over the past several seasons, the Pirates have made several deals with the Yankees, sending them Craig Wilson, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, and Xavier Nady. The Pirates always seem to get the short end of such trades.

The Yankees use these players to solidify their push to the playoffs, while the Pirates continue to flounder until the next season, when they repeat the process. It has been said that the definition of insanity is to repeat your actions and expect different results. I believe the Pirates' executives to be insane.

So what's left for Detroit? Guys like Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott are likely still available, as are Adam Dunn and Nick Johnson, but all will have a bigger price tag than Hinske.

Perhaps, the Tigers' answer will come from within, as Carlos Guillen is progressing nicely from his shoulder injury that has cost him most of the season. If he can regain any type of the form at the plate he has displayed over the past several seasons, he would be a welcome addition to the Tigers' inconsistent attack.

The simple facts are that if the Tigers plan to make it to October, the offense needs a boost. If players like Guillen and Magglio Ordonez can find the fountain of youth, they should have enough to get there. If not, and I would not put a ton of faith in that happening, the team must look outside the organization for help.

A versatile left handed hitter that's capable of hitting the long ball would be ideal. With Hinske's name scratched from the shopping list, I will throw my support behind Chad Tracy of the Diamondbacks.

Tracy has spent the last month on the disabled list, but when healthy, has shown good pop throughout his career, twice hitting at least 20 home runs in a season. He can play first base and third base. He played in the outfield regularly prior to 2006, so he could probably get by there again.

Tracy could be activated by this weekend and while it's true that he has been injury prone over the past three seasons, so it would be a risk to take him on, the Tigers wouldn't need him to play everyday. He could be used in a platoon situation to help offset the losses of production the team was counting on from Ordonez and Guillen.

Given his injury history and the D-backs roster full of young talent, Arizona shouldn't ask for a ton in return. Tracy has a $7 million option for next season with a buyout of $1 million, so he should fit into the Tigers' plans financially as well.

Marcus Thames Key to Tigers' Success

Marcus Thames is "country strong". He showed that Friday night, clubbing two big flies, propelling the Tigers to a 10-4 rain-shortened victory over Milwaukee.

After Armando Galarraga yielded a three-run bomb to Prince Fielder in the first, it was Thames who responded with a two-run shot off Braden Looper in the bottom of the inning to get the Tigers back into the game. Thames then capped the scoring with another two-run blast in the seventh, this one an opposite field shot on an 0-2 count just as the rain began to fall again, ending the Brewers chances and the game.

In 13 games since returning from injury, Thames has gone 12-36 with five home runs, and provided the pop this team has been missing from guys like Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen. He has three bombs in his last two games since being installed into the cleanup spot behind Miguel Cabrera.

It was partly with an eye toward getting regular at-bats for Thames that the Tigers decided to part ways with Gary Sheffield this spring, though Sheffield was still owed $14 million for this season. Unfortunately for Detroit, the Carlos Guillen injuries forced Jim Leyland to play Guillen at DH early this year, taking those at-bats from Marcus. By the time Guillen hit the DL, Thames was already there, having hurt an abdominal muscle during batting practice in April. But the timing couldn't have been better for his return in early June.

With Guillen still out of the lineup (he could yet miss the whole season), and Magglio Ordonez no longer the threat he once was, Detroit was severely lacking offensive production. While finishing up the last road trip in St. Louis, Leyland decided it was time to let Thames play everyday and see what he could do. The move has paid immediate dividends.

After being held to just three runs in the first game with Thames at cleanup, the Tigers have plated six and 10 in their last two. Slotting Thames to hit behind Cabrera has also allowed Curtis Granderson to move back to the top of the order, while still providing some measure of protection for El Martillo, who is now hitting third.

Thames has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but this time, perhaps he will get the extended playing time that Leyland has promised before, only to take it away to give to another player. This time, the Tigers can't afford to not have Marcus and his long-ball ability in the lineup. He is a three-run homer waiting to happen.

The addition of Thames, along with the promotions of catcher Dusty Ryan, who made his season debut Friday, and pitcher Alfredo Figaro, slated to make his major league debut Saturday, are changes that are perhaps long over due for the first-place Tigers. The offense had gone cold, and the lack of production of catcher Dane Sardinha and Ordonez were two of the many reasons for that.

Ryan figures to take over for Sardinha's role and the upgrade offensively he should provide will allow more rest for starter Gerald Laird. The fresher Leyland can keep Laird, the better his numbers should become as the season goes forward. Ryan stepped into the lineup Friday and clubbed an RBI double to tie the game in the fourth inning, leading to a four-run rally that saw the Tigers take the lead they would not give back.

If Figaro, taking over for Dontrelle Willis, can hold down the fifth spot of the rotation, the Tigers are going to like their chances in a great many games the rest of the way. The additions of Thames and Ryan should allow for much better offensive numbers from the lineup, but it will hinge on whether or not Thames can stay productive over an extended period of time. It's the chance he's been waiting his whole career for.

Shake-ups Continue in Tiger Town

Magglio Ordonez may be nearing the end of the line in Detroit. The former batting champion has lost his starting job, at least for now.

Prior to last night's game in St. Louis, a 6-3 Tigers victory, manager Jim Leyland announced that Maggs would not play, but did not elaborate on low long his benching would last. This could be the first step towards the door for the Tigers' beloved right fielder.

In addition to the Ordonez situation, the team announced that AA right hander Alfredo Figaro would make the jump to Detroit and will start Saturday versus Milwaukee, with much maligned Dontrelle Willis hitting the DL with an anxiety disorder for the second time this season.

Figaro has pitched well in Erie this season, and gets the call over Mud Hens' lefty Luke French, who was also in line for a call-up. The guess here is that Figaro will get an extended look in the fifth starter spot in Detroit, as he is considered one of the organization's better pitching prospects. Regardless of his performance on Saturday, expect him to make several turns through the rotation. It's time to see what the kid can do.

Ordonez, on the other hand, is likely nearing the end of his days in Detroit. The once feared slugger has managed only two home runs this season, and frequently seems content to loop soft singles the other way. His average is a respectable .273, but well off the pace that his track record demands. His extra base power has all but completely vanished, and he carries a .690 OPS this season.

Another issue with Ordonez has become his contract. If he were to reach 135 games started this season, his 2010 option will automatically vest, locking him in for $18million next season. His production has not warranted a spot on this team, and it certainly does not warrant paying him that kind of money next year.

There had been much speculation before the season that the Tigers might release Magglio prior to his option vesting, and that certainly would have drawn the ire (and possibly a grievance) of the player's union. Ordonez hasn't done much to help the Tigers on the field this year, but his below average performance has probably allowed the team to cut him now and make a viable argument that the decision is based solely on performance.

The simple fact is that the Tigers could easily get the kind of production Magglio has given them from a much younger and cheaper player. In limited at-bats this season, Ryan Raburn, who replaced Ordonez in the starting lineup, and Clete Thomas (currently in AAA) have put up OPS's of .731 and .727 respectively. While those are not great numbers, they are significantly better than Ordonez.

The argument to release Magglio is growing stronger. Now is the time to do so.

UPDATE (3:29pm): Lee is reporting that Dusty Ryan is on his way to Detroit. No word on who might be moved out, but I think it's safe to assume it will be Sardinha. With Laird having caught the past four games, look for Ryan to be in the lineup tonight versus Milwaukee.

Tigers' Lineup Needs Consistentcy

Seriously, how tough can it be? Jim Leyland has managed over 2700 major league games, plus an addition 49 playoff games and countless more in the spring training and the minor leagues. During that time, he has been responsible for filling out the lineup card for each and every one of those games. Recently, Leyland seems to have forgotten how to do it.

With the offense struggling as much as it has this year, Leyland needs to establish consistency with the lineup. The constant shuffling has not worked. Perhaps, Leyland purposely tries to illustrate to Dave Dombrowski that he needs another hitter by running out lineups that would rival those of the MudHens. The top three in Sunday's game were Don Kelly, Ramon Santiago, and Josh Anderson. Seriously? I'm half expecting to read Dane Sardinha's name in the three spot tonight.

My hope is that is exactly what Leyland is doing. It's as if he's saying "See? I need another bat so I can field a decent lineup, because this is the best I can come up with from what you have given me." I really can't say as I blame him, but a face to face meeting might be a better option for sending a message.

Conventional wisdom says Placido Polanco is going to hit, and that Magglio Ordonez will find at least some of old form, so maybe this whole problem will correct itself. But we now stand more than 1/3 through the season, how much longer do we wait?

The Tigers need to go get another hitter. He should be left handed and be able to play a corner outfield spot. He should also feature the ability to hit the long ball with some regularity. We have seen so far that that hitter is not Clete Thomas, and is not Josh Anderson. I doubt that he is Don Kelly, either. It is time to make a deal.

A quick check of the standings show Baltimore, Washington, Oakland, San Diego, and Pittsburgh as likely sellers. Aubrey Huff would be a nice fit from the Orioles, though his price tag may be too high. Adam Dunn could be had, as could Nick Johnson from Washington. Dunn is terrible defensively, but his bat would be a welcome addition. Johnson would be a better fit, as he can play outfield, though usually doesn't, but the Nats have been asking the moon for their OBP machine. The guys in Oakland and San Diego don't seem all that attractive, outside of Matt Holliday who is right handed.

That leaves just the Pirates, and the player that Detroit should target is Eric Hinske. Hinske can play first, third, left, and right. He has good power, he has twice clubbed 20 HR seasons, including last year. Plus he has played for the past two American League champions, so he may just be good luck. The Pirates have used Hinske only sparingly, as he has just 86 at bats in 2009, so he may come cheap. Which is key, because Detroit probably can't offer much in a trade.

If they can acquire Hinske or someone like him, the lineup can be re-assembled. I would personally like to see Granderson find a home batting third, but another lefty bat would allow him to move back to the top of the order. Either way, Detroit needs to find a lineup and allow it the time needed to work consistently.

Playing Pepper with J. Ellet Lambie

When I began this blog about a month ago, I had no idea where things might go, or if anyone would even read it. What I have found so far, is that I truly enjoy sharing my thoughts about Tigers baseball with other fans and bloggers, and that at least of few of you are reading.

Recently, J. Ellet Lambie of Hazaa, asked me to participate in a segment he runs regularly called "Five for Fighting", where he and another blogger trade five questions and post each other's answers. I have been a big fan of his work since I first stumbled upon it, and was humbled to be asked to join him for this piece. John is perhaps the most talented writer I have encountered in the blogosphere and I encourage all of you to be sure to visit his site and read through his archives.

The questions I asked him will appear here with his answers, while the questions he posed to me will appear at Hazaa, along with my answers. Think of this like one of those old episodes of Law and Order that would overlap with an episode of Homicide. Always a good time, as I'm sure this will be. Let's get started...

Q: In light of the offensive struggles so far this year, what are the changes you would like to see? (Are there players in the minors you feel should get a look? or Name some players that the Tigers should target via trade.)

I'll probably be in the minority here, but I don't think a whole lot of external change is required to right the ship. Magglio Ordonez started slowly, but has raised his batting average significantly and is beginning to drive in runs when it matters. Placido Polanco is better than a .250 hitter, I expect he'll rebound soon as well. Marcus Thames will soon be available to provide a little more punch, although consistency has always been his Achilles heel. Slumps come at odd times and tend to bring about a knee-jerk reaction among fans. I'm willing to be patient, for at least the next month.

There are however a few players rumored to be available in the trade market that I think would provide some injury security and eliminate the need to carry youngsters such as Jeff Larish and Ryan Raburn.

Nick Johnson of the Washington Nationals is one of those guys. He's hitting .332 as of this morning with a .434 on-base percentage and 30 RBIs. He's also walked 33 times against 37 strike outs, which would give the Tigers a truly patient hitter in the lineup. He'd provide depth at first base, a considerable upgrade over Larish. I'm not sure what his price tag would be, but it's probably higher than we think. Left handed hitters of his quality don't grow on trees.

Aubrey Huff is another potential free agent that could help the Tigers, and he's publicly admitted his man-crush on Edwin Jackson so that might help clear the way for his mid July transfer, but don't count on it yet. The Orioles will seek more than he's worth, as they always do.

In terms of another proven outfielder with some pop, which this team could certainly use, names like Jermaine Dye and Matt Holliday will be mentioned but neither will end up here. The Tigers are more likely to pursue a Marlon Byrd (whom I would love to have) or a Rick Ankiel (whom I wouldn't).

Q: Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, recently spoke with Mike McClary on the podcast and suggested it was time to cut bait with some big contracts (Ordonez, Willis, Roberston), how realistic do you feel his suggestions were and do you agree with him?

The release of Gary Sheffield this spring opened the door for this kind of thinking, and while it has happened before with guys like Damion Easley I don't know that the same circumstances apply here. Let's start with Maggs. The bulk of the rationale from writers who support cutting him loose comes from the impending contract option kicking in for next season. If Ordonez plays 135 games or reaches 540 plate appearances that ginormous option is guaranteed. While he isn't the player he once was he can still hit, and there is no one in line to replace him except Wilkin Ramirez, and let's face it, he's not ready yet. I don't expect the team to cut Ordonez, although it will be very interesting to see how they handle his playing time late in the season. I believe the organization would like to see Magglio quietly slip away after the '09 season and find his replacement on the deeply discounted free agent market.

As for Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson, Dave Dombrowski made his bed and he's gonna have to lie in it. Both players were given expensive extensions based on questionable results. Both players have struggled more since signing those contracts, making them near impossible to trade. At least with Dontrelle you can make the argument that there was once great talent in him, talent that possibly, maybe, could be re-kindled. Nate Robertson, and pardon me for being so blunt, is not a good pitcher and not going to get better. Be it in the rotation or the bullpen he has proven unable to do what he needs to do in order to be successful, get left-handers out. Lefties have hit .267 against him over his career. He'll be 32-years-old come September. Maybe Dombrowski can con some young GM into giving up a hot-dog cart and a few rolls of tape for him if the Tigers pay 90% of his contract, but that's the best deal out there.

I think Nate will be cut at some point, Willis probably not.

Q: Does Jeff Larish have a future in Detroit, this year or beyond?

No. He's a poor defender with a big swing that has too many holes in it. He's not going to see time at the corner infield positions and isn't the outfield answer the team needs. He'll be headed back to AAA the moment Marcus Thames returns, probably never to return.

Q: How do you see the rotation shaking out after the next week or so of games?

Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello are safe, we know that. The other two spots will be filled by some combination of Galarraga, Bonderman, Willis, Miner and perhaps a Toledo Mudhen. I know it's a vague answer, go ahead and poke fun at me, but I'm a writer not a clairvoyant. Armando has shown he can dominate, and has looked better in his last two outings after a brief rough patch, so I'd say he was the favorite for the 4th spot. Bondo hasn't pitched in a Major League game in a year, Willis has had more ups and downs in the last month than a recovering alcoholic and Zach Miner is, well, Zach Miner.

If I had to handicap it I would say the 4th spot is Galarraga's to lose and the 5th spot would ideally go to Willis simply to have a leftie in the mix, but he may pitch himself out of that decision. Jeremy Bonderman is going to be a part of this club, and I believe it will be as a starter, although it may take a few weeks to find his place. Bondo will get the audition in the Monday double-header and Willis will get another start next week as well - may the best man win.

Meanwhile Zach Miner can continue to serve as the long-dstance mop-up man and emergency long-relief option.


Q: How do you feel about the Leyland contract situation? Has he earned his extention yet?

I've been critical of Leyland this year, and last year, although I generally like and respect him very much. My biggest question is how motivated is he? He's been around, he's won championships, he's not getting any younger. As much as people ask does he deserve it I ask does he really want it? He looks conflicted to me, but I'm hardly an FBI profiler. Jimmy Leyland has had a tremendous career and I'm not saying it's over yet, but I believe certain parts of the game are beginning to wear on him and dare I say, even pass him by.

To be fair, Dave Dombrowski certainly hasn't made his job very easy these last two years. The gargantuan contracts given to players who have drastically under-performed have been an ulcer waiting to bleed in Leyland since last spring. If upper management is paying those kind of salaries on a multi-year basis it's tough to move those guys out of the lineup, even when players like Edgar Renteria, Gary Sheffield, Pudge Rodriguez (last season) and the aforementioned pitchers Willis and Robertson along with Brandon Lyon have struggled.

A manager must work with the roster he's given and Jim Leyland may have some stars, but he has more than his share of liabilities as well.

Bottom line, It's too early in the season to know if Jim really wants it, and if he deserves it. Ask me again in late August or September. If I had to guess, and let's say I did, I expect he'll return for one more year, if only out of the loyalty Mike Illitch is known for.

--end--

Once again, I would like to thank J. Ellet Lambie for including me in this work. I think we tackled a good number of issues here, and I had a lot of fun doing this. If nothing else, I got a chance to talk Tigers with another knowledgeable fan, which is always enjoyable for me, and was really the whole purpose of my blog to begin with. As a reminder, check out Hazaa to see the other side of this story, and see my answers to the questions he asked.