Showing posts with label Willis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Willis. Show all posts

Friday, July 3, 2009

Time to Move On Without Magglio

Magglio Ordonez provided easily the best baseball experience in the past 24 years for Detroit Tigers' fans. The walk-off home run he hit to win the 2006 ALCS and propel the Tigers into the World Series set off a love fest in Comerica Park. It brought tears to the eyes of any fan that saw it.

In 2005, he signed a mega-deal to play for the Tigers, when no one wanted to play here, and when no one wanted to pay him. Ordonez was coming off an experimental knee surgery, one that he had to have performed in Germany, because no American doctor would do it. The Tigers were just one season removed from the worst record in American League history.

Sadly, the whirlwind romance between Maggs and the Tigers appears to be nearing its end.

Just two years removed from his batting title in 2007, Ordonez has fallen flat. In 2007, he hit .363 with a league leading 54 doubles and an OPS of 1.029. But the numbers declined last season and then the bottom fell out this year.

Entering play today, Magglio is hitting a mere .260, the lowest of his career. He is carrying an OPS of only .663, again the lowest of his career. Ordonez has managed only three home runs and nine doubles in 246 at bats. The former extra base hit machine is now only able to loop soft singles to right, no longer driving the ball to the gaps as he did so often before.

There are other alarming numbers as well. He has grounded into 13 double plays already this year. His defense in right field has been well below league average, and his strikeouts are up, fanning in 16 percent of his at bats, easily the highest rate of his career.

Perhaps the most alarming number, however, is 18. As in the $18 million Magglio is set to earn next season if he reaches certain games played milestones this year.

The Tigers simply cannot afford to allow his option to vest.

When the contract with Magglio was signed prior to the 2005 season, Detroit knew they would have to overpay to acquire the superstar outfielder, and overpay they did. To this point, Magglio has been worth every penny he has received. But the "outs" that were written into the deal regarding the vesting options for 2010 and 2011 were put there to protect the team from having to overpay for an aging veteran, whose health or production might not warrant that kind of money.

When Ordonez was removed from the lineup for six games last month, his agent, Scott Boras, publicly basted the Tigers for the move. It was Boras' contention that Ordonez performance did not warrant the perceived benching. He stated that the replacements Detroit had used were not an upgrade to Ordonez. He later also said that his comments had nothing to do with next season's option on Ordonez's contract. I suspect that Boras was wrong on all accounts.

Lets' start with the contract. The Tigers have already committed to over $84 million in player salaries for next season (Cot's Contracts), not including the $18 million that Ordonez could earn.

Of that total, $47.5 million is committed to DH Carlos Guillen, and pitchers Nate Robertson, Dontrelle Willis, and Jeremy Bonderman. Considering what the four players listed above have contributed to this year's team (not much), there is little reason to suspect the Tigers will get favorable returns on any of those deals.

You also have to account for significant raises to be given to players in arbitration years. Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson, Bobby Seay, and Joel Zumaya all figure to earn much more next year than they have this season. Add in the fact that closer Fernando Rodney will be a free agent, along with second baseman Placido Polanco and shortstop Adam Everett, and you have to expect that money will be spent to fill those holes as well.

But if Ordonez is better than the other options to play right field, I suspect the money wouldn't matter as much. Let's see if Mr. Boras was right about Magglio being the Tigers' best option.

We will look at this season's numbers, because now three months into the season, you have to expect that this is the player you have, and can no longer hope a player will revert to his track record. Ordonez's line is ghastly. .260/.330/.333/.663 is not good for a catcher. It's down right bad for a corner outfielder. Factor in his defense and lack of speed and you have a liability in the lineup.

Detroit has used two players frequently in the outfield that would be suitable replacements for Ordonez; Clete Thomas, and Ryan Raburn.

Thomas, currently in AAA Toledo, saw a great deal of playing time when he was up earlier this year. His major league numbers show an overall upgrade to Ordonez. Thomas had 114 AB's and posted a .237/.315/.412/.727 line this year. While those numbers do not necessarily suggest a huge improvement over Ordonez by themselves, they are better numbers.

Thomas has also hit four home runs and driven in 17 runs this season. He has above average speed, and plays much better defense than Ordonez as well. By contrast, Magglio has just three home runs and 24 RBI in his 248 at bats.

Raburn has seen the bulk of his playing time lately, and has taken advantage of his chance. In 98 at bats this year, Raburn has a line of .265/.351/.480/.831. He has played spotty defense in the outfield, but no worse than that of Ordonez. Raburn has five home runs and 19 RBI thus far, and like Thomas, provides more speed than Ordonez.

It is Raburn's offensive numbers that suggest the biggest reason to remove Ordonez from the lineup, and the biggest reason to exclude that part of Boras' argument.

As the calendar has turned to July, the Tigers remain in first place. That lead seems tenuous at best with the offense struggling to consistently put up runs. Detroit has scored three runs or fewer in better than 45 percent of it's games. (hat tip: Eye of the Tigers)

The Tigers will explore the trade market to try to augment the lack of overall production. The possible return of Carlos Guillen later this month could help, but only if he can regain some of his old form and drive the ball with consistency.

The biggest move the team can make to improve however, is to release Magglio Ordonez. His lack of production this season is a burden that some teams could bear, but not this team, and not with that contract.

If this were a younger Ordonez, with a smaller contract, perhaps the team could wait him out, and hope he returns to form. But he's not younger, and he's not less expensive. The looming payday that Ordonez will receive if he is allowed to continue to play for Detroit could cripple the franchise financially next season more so than the other bad deals detailed above. More so because it can be avoided.

If Ordonez was performing at his usual levels, his contract would be worth the price, his contributions would help the team in their push for the playoffs. But were are nearly half way through the season, and he is not performing. His performance has been a hindrance more than a help. In fact, it's not unfair to say that the Tigers have been a first-place team this year in spite of playing Ordonez as much as they have.

Although Ordonez has offered tremendous moments in years gone by, baseball is about winning. Releasing Ordonez now can only help this team win, both this year and beyond.

Friday, June 19, 2009

Shake-ups Continue in Tiger Town

Magglio Ordonez may be nearing the end of the line in Detroit. The former batting champion has lost his starting job, at least for now.

Prior to last night's game in St. Louis, a 6-3 Tigers victory, manager Jim Leyland announced that Maggs would not play, but did not elaborate on low long his benching would last. This could be the first step towards the door for the Tigers' beloved right fielder.

In addition to the Ordonez situation, the team announced that AA right hander Alfredo Figaro would make the jump to Detroit and will start Saturday versus Milwaukee, with much maligned Dontrelle Willis hitting the DL with an anxiety disorder for the second time this season.

Figaro has pitched well in Erie this season, and gets the call over Mud Hens' lefty Luke French, who was also in line for a call-up. The guess here is that Figaro will get an extended look in the fifth starter spot in Detroit, as he is considered one of the organization's better pitching prospects. Regardless of his performance on Saturday, expect him to make several turns through the rotation. It's time to see what the kid can do.

Ordonez, on the other hand, is likely nearing the end of his days in Detroit. The once feared slugger has managed only two home runs this season, and frequently seems content to loop soft singles the other way. His average is a respectable .273, but well off the pace that his track record demands. His extra base power has all but completely vanished, and he carries a .690 OPS this season.

Another issue with Ordonez has become his contract. If he were to reach 135 games started this season, his 2010 option will automatically vest, locking him in for $18million next season. His production has not warranted a spot on this team, and it certainly does not warrant paying him that kind of money next year.

There had been much speculation before the season that the Tigers might release Magglio prior to his option vesting, and that certainly would have drawn the ire (and possibly a grievance) of the player's union. Ordonez hasn't done much to help the Tigers on the field this year, but his below average performance has probably allowed the team to cut him now and make a viable argument that the decision is based solely on performance.

The simple fact is that the Tigers could easily get the kind of production Magglio has given them from a much younger and cheaper player. In limited at-bats this season, Ryan Raburn, who replaced Ordonez in the starting lineup, and Clete Thomas (currently in AAA) have put up OPS's of .731 and .727 respectively. While those are not great numbers, they are significantly better than Ordonez.

The argument to release Magglio is growing stronger. Now is the time to do so.

UPDATE (3:29pm): Lee is reporting that Dusty Ryan is on his way to Detroit. No word on who might be moved out, but I think it's safe to assume it will be Sardinha. With Laird having caught the past four games, look for Ryan to be in the lineup tonight versus Milwaukee.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Willis Out, French In?

Long road trips lend themselves to losing. Losing breeds restlessness. Restlessness breeds change.

The changes are already beginning in Motown. The Detroit News is reporting that Dontrelle Willis will not make his next start, which has lead to much speculation as to who will.

Zach Miner would be the leading in-house candidate, although I wondered last night if Nate Robertson's early appearance wasn't designed to get him on schedule to throw Saturday. Robertson's poor performance yesterday should quash those thoughts, however.

As for Miner, the use of the righty would result in a rotation sans a left hander, and while Detroit would certainly perfer to have at least one southpaw in the rotation, results should be the only things that matter. Simply put, of the options currently on the roster, Miner would give the Tigers the best chance to win.

Another name being tossed around is that of Mud Hens lefty Luke French. French appeared briefly on the major league roster earlier this year and pitched in two games. He has yet to allow a hit in his big league career, but he walked three over his three innings. "The Tickler" (as Rogo has dubbed him), has a 4-4 record in Toledo this season, sporting a nifty 3.26 ERA with 54 strikeouts against 18 walks in 66.2 innings. Call it the restlessness of losing, but I would like to see French get that start.

In order to recall French, someone must be moved off of the active roster. Barring an unforeseen injury, that will mean that a player will either be released, traded, or sent down. Of the possible candidates to be demoted, only Armando Galarraga and Ryan Perry have minor league options, but I doubt either of them are headed to Toledo. That might mean that it's time to pull up a chair, Mr. Illitch, you have a heaping plate-full of salary to eat.

Fans want major changes in Detroit, and with each passing poor performance, both from the starting pitching, and the offense, I find myself joining them. A move has to be made.

There remains the possibility that Dontrelle would be asked to accept a minor league assignment, much as he did last season. I'm sure they have probably already spoken with him about it. If he does, then the roster problem is solved, for now. If he declines, as his service time would allow, the Tigers would either have to try to hide him in the bullpen, or designate him for assignment and eventually release him and swallow what's left of the $22MM on his deal.

Apart from Willis, Robertson would be the next most likely to be DFA'd. The balance of his $17MM contract doesn't sound too yummy, but the team is getting basically nothing out of him. The Tigers have to look at this one way, and that is that the money is already spent. They aren't getting anything in return and must move on.

All of this still only addresses one of the Tigers several holes, but at least its a start. The offensive woes must also be dealt with, and soon. Detroit still holds a two game lead on Minnesota, and sit atop the dreadful AL Central, but that lead could be gone by the weekend.

Long road trips lend themselves to losing. Rare is the team that can go on the road and win the majority of the time. Detroit has done fairly well away from the CoPa this year, but they have now lost three straight and 5 of the nine games so far on this trip.

I'd rather be a struggling first-place team than a surging fifth-place team any day. The move to remove Willis from the rotation has got to buoy the team's confidence. To borrow a line from former Tiger Alan Trammell, "This is how it starts. This is how we get better."

The Tigers will start Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello the next two games to try to salvage a winning trip, which is always what I hope for when they hit the road. With the changes that are now beginning in Motown, the Tigers are taking steps towards staying in first-place.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Changes Needed in Tigers' Rotation

I believe the honeymoon is officially over. I think it is now safe to proclaim that the back end of the Tigers' rotation is not very good. Actually, not very good would be an upgrade.

The combined efforts put forth by Armando Galarraga and Dontrelle Willis over the weekend was just plain awful. How does 5.2 innings, 14 hits, 10 earned runs, nine walks and just one stikeout grab you? That's the combined line of Willis and Galarraga at Pittsburgh over the past few days. These, folks, are not isolated incidents. The question now has to be what can be done about it?

It's true that Galarraga began the season 3-0 with a 1.85 ERA. It's also true that he was very good for a very bad team last year. And it appears that the pitcher that put up those numbers no longer exists. Galarraga has not won since his fourth start of the year, though prior to his performance on Saturday, he had turned in three straight "quality starts". Saturday was just plain bad. If this was a guy who had been pitching well all along, it could be forgiven. This is not just a blip on the radar, though, it has become a trend.

Dontrelle, meanwhile, has exactly one good start in seven tries. One. His effort against Texas on May 19 was very very good and inspired many, me included, to extol his virtues and proclaim him to be "back". It hasn't gone well since.

Following his sparkling effort versus the Rangers, Willis has spiraled backward. In five starts since May 19, he has posted an 0-4 record, with an ERA of 9.53. He has walked 24 hitters over 22.2 innings against just 12 strikeouts. He consistently pitches himself into jams. This simply cannot continue. Dontrelle, for his part, said the same when speaking to MLB.com's Jason Beck following the game Sunday. And while his accountabililty is nice, it doesn't put zeros on the board.

Much has been said by many a folk about what to do with Willis. No one will trade for him, I don't see any way that they will release him with the amount of money he is still owed. As J. Ellet Lambie wrote to me about him, "They'll have him working the concession stands before they cut him", and I agree. The Tigers chose to extend him prior to the 2007 season and now they are stuck with him. But they cannot continue to hand him the ball and hold their breath. It's just not fair to the team to continuously put everyone in a hole to try to dig out of. The only option for Willis is a spot in the bullpen, where he can hopefully be hidden and used only in blowout games.

Galarraga, on the other hand can be dealt with much more easily. Not only does he have a minor league option available to use, but his small price tag and the fact that he has shown good success in the major leagues could make him attractive in a trade. Either way, the Tigers cannot afford to basically forfeit two of every five games on the schedule. There are other arms that Jim Leyland can give the ball to. I think now is the time to do that.

Kurt has been on this for awhile, and now Billfer and Lee are on board, too. I guess you can begrudgingly add my name to the roll call now as well. Zach Miner should be given a rotation spot. I have never really been a fan of his, but it has been nice to have him on the team as a guy that could start, or could pitch two or three innings of relief.

Miner has shown a tendency to allow every inherited baserunner to immediately score, but seems to do fine when he enters the game to begin an inning. He has seen some success as a starter in the past, and while he's not going to ever win a Cy Young award, he can keep his team in the game more often than not. At this point, that's a whole lot more than Detroit has been getting from Willis or Galarraga.

Even if they add Miner to spell Galarraga, you would still like to have a lefthander in the rotation. I think everyone can see where this is going, and I'm sure there aren't too many who will agree, but... Nate Robertson. That's right. I can't believe I'm typing this out but Nate is really the only other viable option to start games. If we assume that Willis will stay on the team because of his salary, and I will assume that, then he has to be hidden in the bullpen. Nate Robertson is currently in hiding there and you can't hide all of them, so I will nominate him to start in lieu of Willis.

The Robertson story has been well documented. A mainstay on the 2006 AL Championship team, he pitched strictly as a starter for much of his career. Over the past two years, his velocity has slipped a bit, and he lost command of his patented slider. He lost out of the rotation competition this spring and was banished to the bullpen, where he has been used only sparingly.

Obviously, Leyland hasn't much confidence in Robertson, and his numbers this year wouldn't suggest he's earned any. That being said, he has to be a better option than Willis doesn't he? I mean, he can't possibly be worse.

Mike Feld recently called the Tigers the worst first-place team in baseball and he points out several other glaring holes. And while I agree that the offense needs an upgrade (might I suggest Eric Hinske?), you could field a team full of all-stars and not be able to win when you get the efforts that Willis and Galarraga have been giving.

The winds of change are blowing in Detroit. I can only hope that management catches up before the Twins do.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Another Exciting Adventure with Dontrelle

With the Red Wings playing game six of the Stanley Cup Finals last night, I had planned on a nice evening watching hockey. Unfortunately, I cannot turn away from a Dontrelle Willis start. This is must-watch stuff here. For all the people that complain about how boring baseball is, I say "just go watch D-Train pitch sometime". Each pitch that he throws is a new and exciting adventure, which is not necessarily what you ideally would want from a guy pitching for your club. But boring, he is not.

His outing can best be summed up by a post made by Kurt from Mack Avenue Tigers, on the gamethread at Bless You Boys.

typical willis start
which is an improvement over last time.
scares the hell out of you, pisses you off a few times, scares the hell out of you a bit more and does uhm, OK I guess.
Mack Avenue Tigers
by MackAveKurt on Jun 9, 2009 9:52 PM EDT

Kurt, I couldn't agree more.

The bottom of the fifth inning yesterday was one of the more intense frames of baseball I have ever watched. Willis was obviously not completely healthy after hurting his knee in the first, and was visibly limping. But he battled through the pain, and battled his command issues to finally retire A.J. Pierzynski with the bases loaded by making a diving sprawl on a slow roller just past the mound, then threw wildly to first from his belly, only to see Miguel Cabrera preserve the tie with a great stretch to stay on the bag.

When it was over, I could finally exhale.

Dontrelle Willis is exhausting to watch. He began his evening with six consecutive balls. He allowed the White Sox first run on a wild pitch. Over his five innings of work, he allowed 10 baserunners (five walks, five hits). He also allowed a game-tying two-run homer to Brain Anderson. As he has in the past, he also had good moments. His fastball reached 94 MPH, he consistently got ground balls, and was able to limit the damage to three runs over his start.

But he battled all day. Trainer Kevin Rand twice went to the mound to check on Willis, once after the play in the first when Willis hurt himself covering home, and once in the second. Twice Willis persuaded Rand and Jim Leyland to leave him in. On the second trip, I could read his lips when he said "There is no way I'm coming out of this game".

Willis has a long way to go. But unlike Jeremy Bonderman right now, his stuff is good enough. And he competes on every pitch, even if sometimes just with himself. Consistency has got to improve, though. Just as Dontrelle refused to leave the game last night, he needs to refuse to yield to his demons, and refuse to give up his fight to keep a starting job.

His determination may be the only thing keeping him in the major leagues right now.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Bonderman, Willis Make Pitch for Starting Jobs

Armando Galarraga seemingly put to rest any thoughts that he was about to lose his spot in the Tigers' starting rotation yesterday. After a rough first inning, he settled in and pitched very well. He pitched into the seventh inning, and left with lead, as Detroit bested Chicago 5-4 in the opener of a day-night doubleheader, and the start of a five game series with the White Sox. He was very good after his 33 pitch first frame, allowing only a homerun to noted Tiger-killer Jermaine Dye thereafter.

In the nightcap, Jeremy Bonderman made his first start in the major leagues in over a year. His stuff was underwhelming, his location was poor, and the results were unimpressive. Granted, he was starting in Chicago against the Sox, so you had to figure that homeruns could be a problem for any pitcher in that spot, and I'm sure nerves were a factor. That being said, I was not at all encouraged by what I saw.

Bonderman no longer possesses the great fastball and power slider he used to, those have been replaced by versions 5-6 MPH slower. He did feature a changeup, but he lacked command with it and the differential between that pitch and his fastball was only about 5 MPH, which is not ideal.

All six of Chicago's runs last night were charged to Bonderman, I had the feeling that it could have been worse. Bonderman has a long history of first-inning struggles, but last night he wasn't unlucky in that frame, he was bad. From the first hitter of the game, it felt like he was in trouble. The outs he recorded were on hard hit balls, he wasn't fooling anybody. Things never really improved.

Dontrelle Willis will get another chance to keep his rotation spot tonight, as he tries to bounce back from a poor performance last week versus Boston. In that start, Willis managed to yield five earned runs without allowing a hit, or making it out of the third inning.

When I watched Bonderman last night, I tried to compare his outing to what I saw from Dontrelle in his first start against the Twins last month. The finals numbers aren't far apart, but the feeling I took from each drastically differed. Bonderman threw 4+ innings, allowing eight hits, three walks, and six runs, with one strikeout. He gave up three homeruns. Willis, on May 13, went 4.2 innings, allowing eight hits, two walks, and four runs. He allowed one homerun, and was without a strikeout. Four of Bonderman's eight hits allowed went for extra bases, while only two of Willis' did.

As I wrote at the time, Willis looked like a pitcher with a plan and a purpose to each pitch. His stuff was there, but his command within the zone was not. But I could see that the talent had not eroded, it just needed to be harnessed. Conversely, last night Bonderman looked like a pitcher who was trying to pitch like he still had the stuff to blow past hitters. His once electric arm is gone, at least for now, and he was unable to make the adjustments that were necessary.

By no means am I calling this race over. Willis has been inconsistent at best, but did show promise in one start. Perhaps Bonderman can build on his effort last night and pitch better going forward. But Willis is getting his chance to keep his job tonight. If he pitches well and shows results, the job is likely his to keep. Bonderman's effort last night has put Willis in the driver's seat.

Bonderman can now only watch, his work is done. He may get one more start, as perhaps the first can be chalked up to nerves. Maybe, he will move to the bullpen, or accept a minor league assignment. But the impression that I got is that Bonderman wasn't ready. And I am not confident he will be soon.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Bloggers of the World, Unite! 300 wins, Sad Days in Motown

J Ellet Lambie of Hazaa recently offered his opinions on Randy Johnson's persuit of 300 wins, which came to a successful end yesterday at Washington. You might recall that the Nationals are the former Expos, which is the team Johnson broke in with, and where he won exactly three games before being shipped off to Seattle.

Many kudos to the Unit on that historic accomplishment. From a freakishly tall guy who had no clue where the ball would go when he pitched, to a 5-time Cy Young winner, it has been an honor to watch his greatness develop.

So much for the good news:

Over the past three days the Tigers have been pounded into submission by the bullies from Boston. Sadly, Detroit offered little resistance, both from the offense (if you can even call it that anymore), to the pitching staff. Only Armando Galarraga offered a decent performance among the starters, and the bullpen was a combined terrible at worst, shaky at best in all three games.

Getting swept is never fun, getting swept at home is worse, and getting swept at home, by Boston, without putting up a real fight is maddening. A quick check of this morning's standings show the Kitties still sporting a 2.5 game lead though. It can't be that bad, right? Right? The Tigers' blogosphere disagrees.

Rogo of DesigNate Robertson thinks the Tigers are rapidly becoming the Knicks and compares Dave Dombrowski to Isaiah Thomas. Ouch.

Ian at Bless You Boys leads the parade of fans leaping from the D-Train bandwagon.

Kurt at Mack Avenue Tigers passed along some notes from Lynn Henning, and outlined what he believes the Tigers must do going forward. He's been banging the Zach Miner to the rotation drum for a while now, and I agree. I just hope to see him starting for Colorado or Seattle soon.

Rock n Rye of (746 miles) From the CoPa offers a short post on the train wreck that was, and wonders if Dontrelle has thrown his last pitch as a Tiger.

Blake at the Spot Starters gives us some historical perspective on Dontrelle's efforts yesterday.

Jen of Old English D laments the inconsistencies of this Tigers team so far.

To all of this I say that I agree, to a point. From what I saw of Willis yesterday, he was getting squeezed a bunch in the third. If he gets a call on one or two of those pitches to Pedroia or Drew, the Sox have to start swinging, and maybe the inning ends differently. But he didn't get those calls and they didn't have to swing, and the end was what we all witnessed. Ugly.

Jim Leyland seems likely to stick by Willis at least for now though. He mentions in Jason Beck's blog that control hasn't really been a problem until now for Dontrelle. I certainly hope we have not seen the last good performance of Willis' days as a Tiger.

The winds of change are certainly blowing in Tiger Town, however. The imminent return of slugger Marcus Thames and pitcher Jeremy Bonderman will mean roster moves. There has been talk of possible trades, as the Tigers look for a bat.

Could Thames be moved? That may depend on the severity of the Miguel Cabrera injury, as Thames could have to fill-in at first base until El Martillo gets back. I look for Ryan Raburn to head back to Toledo when Marcus is activated.

Bonderman's rehab stint is over, he figures to start game two of Monday doubleheader with Chicago. When Bondo is activated, someone has gotta go.

Could this be the right time to DFA Brandon Lyon? I barring a trade, I'd doubt you would see someone else released. Ryan Perry is the only real candidate to be optioned out, and I don't see that happening yet. Freddy Dolsi has been having a very good year in Toledo, and can provide depth in the bullpen to fill Lyon's role once a starter is moved out.

And make no mistake, a starter must be moved out. The way it stands, Detroit figures to carry 7 or 8 starting pitchers on their staff, for only five slots. The cost of moving Robertson or Willis will probably mean a trade could be on the horizon, likely involving a less expensive pitcher, like Miner or Galarraga.

The Tigers are also in need of a left handed bat to hit in the middle of the order. From what I've seen, Jeff Larish is not the answer. I'd like to see him as part of a package to Colorado, maybe with Miner and some minor league arm to try to get Brad Hawpe. I wonder if that would be enough?

Friday, May 29, 2009

What to do with Jeremy Bonderman?

As Jeremy Bonderman continues his rehab stint with AAA Toledo this week, the Tigers appear to have a tough decision to make soon. Bonderman's rehab assignment runs out as of June 15, at which time the Tigers must recall the righthander. Bonderman has pitched well enough in the minors so far, but his velocity is still down as he tries to come back from surgery last year to alleviate a clotting problem in his right shoulder.

The loss of velocity has to be concerning to all involved, as Bondo has never been a finesse type pitcher. Prior to his injury, he routinely featured a mid-90's fastball and sharp, hard slider. Unfortunately, he has never been able to gain a feel for his changeup, and has been strictly a two pitch pitcher. If one of his pitches is not there, he could be rendered ineffective. If Bonderman can find his old form, he figures to join an already stacked rotation in Detroit. In order to add him, however, someone must get pushed out.

Obviously Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson aren't going anywhere. The successes that these two have enjoyed so far in 2009 are well documented. Both men are horses that pitch deep into games and have shown the consistent ability to shut down opposing hitters.

Dontrelle Willis has shown so far that he is once again capable of working in the strike zone and getting major league hitters out. Willis has made it back from his anxiety disorder and in his three starts this season has looked like a pitcher with a plan, and looked like a pitcher with the stuff to dominate, even if the results are still a bit inconsistent. The questions about whether or not he can help the Tigers should be put to rest. He can and he is. The Tigers entered this season sans a lefthanded starter, and Willis not only provides that, but he provides a track record of logging innings and getting lefty hitters out. Couple his success with his contract, and you can be sure that his rotation spot is safe for the immediate future.

Armando Galarraga's has been a tale of two pitchers. He began the season by winning three of his first four starts, with a 1.85 ERA. When the calendar turned to May however, Galarraga feel off quite a bit, going 0-4 with an ERA north of 9.00 in his next five starts. His effort last night versus Baltimore showed significant progress. He did allow 10 hits including two homeruns but was much better at limiting damage than he had recently been. It was a huge step in the right direction. His early season performance, coupled with his stellar year in 2008 keep him in the rotation for at least one more turn. If he continues to improve, I can't see the Tigers making a move with him. If not, he has minor league options left and could be send down to work out his problems in Toledo.

That just leaves us with the young Rick Porcello. I'm sure that when Porcello made the club out of spring training this year, the plan was for him to hold down the fort and get some experience until Bonderman and/or Willis were healthy enough to return. The plan was a good one, the kid gets a taste of the big leagues, a pat on the back, and a ticket to Toledo or Erie to get some more seasoning. But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry. All Porcello has done with his opportunity is win his past five starts while sporting an ERA of 1.50 over that span. He had a rough start to his year, but has begun throwing his curveball much more frequently and found success. He works quickly, keeps his pitches and his pitch counts down, and has shown poise beyond his years. Porcello has been compared to Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, and Roy Halladay, and has been putting up numbers like Dwight Gooden. The Tigers are trying to protect his arm and keep his workload down, but they are also trying to win, and shutting down a pitcher who is putting up the kind of numbers that Porcello has been would certainly be adverse to winning. Its a tough tightrope to walk, but the Tigers' brass and Jim Leyland have been doing well so far.

So where, exactly does Bonderman fit? Assuming Galarraga continues to improve, a demotion seems unlikely. Bonderman's lack of an off-speed pitch would suggest he is more suited for relief, but a mid to high-80's fastball doesn't usually miss many bats in the big leagues, unless you also feature good off-speed stuff. As it stands now, barring an injury to a starting pitcher, there is no room for Bonderman. If he cannot regain his old velocity, he becomes just another albatross contract and wasted roster spot, but at least Nate Robertson will have someone to talk to in the bullpen, as they wait for a call that doesn't come.

Usually these problems work themselves out, there could be an injury, or Galarraga could get sent down, or even traded. Maybe Bonderman finds his old form in his next couple starts and willingly works in relief. But time is running out, by June 15th we will have the answer.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Willis Key to Divisional Race

Dontrelle Willis left today's contest after 6.2 innings allowing 7 hits and 3 runs, he walked a season high four batters. Willis (1-1, 3.57ERA) was good enough today. He was good enough to be a major league pitcher, he was good enough to keep his spot in the rotation, and although he didn't match the outing he had versus Texas, he was good enough to beat the Rockies. Unfortunately for Willis, the offense managed just six hits and one run against Jason Hammel, and the Tigers fell 3-1. But today, Dontrelle Willis showed again that he is ready to resume a once-promising major league career. The addition of Willis to the Tigers' already formidable rotation should help secure Detroit's place as the favorite to win the AL Central. The division is littered with tough left handed hitters, Mike Jacobs and Alex Gordon in Kansas City, Jim Thome in Chicago, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel in Minnesota and Grady Sizemore in Cleveland. Willis provides the Tigers with a lefty starter they otherwise lack. His success could make the difference in what figures to be a season long race for the playoffs.

The rest of the rotation stacks up well versus the Central division contenders, and the impending return of Jeremy Bonderman figures to give them another boost. Justin Verlander (4-2, 3.99 ERA) leads the AL in strikeouts and has been dominant for most of the season. Even through his first few starts, when his ERA sat at 9.00, his stuff was there, and his outings were marred by one bad inning. Verlander has since eliminated the bad inning and has shown a return to the form that saw him win 35 games in his first two seasons. Verlander will oppose Gil Meche (2-4, 4.42 ERA) in tomorrow's series opener in Kansas City.

Edwin Jackson has finally fulfilled his vast potential. Jackson won 14 games for the surprise AL Champion Rays last season, but was left out of the post-season rotation. Tampa traded him to the Tigers in the off season for outfielder Matt Joyce. Jackson (4-2, 2.55 ERA) leads the staff in innings pitched and has shown the will of an ace in his last two starts, returning after an hour long rain delay to throw three more innings against Oakland on May 15, followed by a 132 pitch effort against Texas on Thursday. He has been the staff's most consistent starter this season.

Rick Porcello has been an absolute revelation for the 2009 edition of the Tigers in much the same way that Verlander was to the '06 version. The 20 year old rookie had never pitched above A-ball when he made the big club out of spring training. The first few starts were bit rough, but he has settled in nicely, not having allowed a home run this month, after allowing six long balls in April. Porcello (5-3, 3.55 ERA) leads the team in wins and seemingly gets better with each start.

Armando Galarraga has struggled mightily in the month of May, after roaring to a 3-0 start to the season. The second year righthander had a slightly improved effort Saturday against Colorado, but may only get one more start before Bonderman returns from injury and pushes someone out of the rotation. Right now, the smart money is on a Galarraga (3-4, 5.74ERA) trip to AAA Toledo to try to work out his problems in the minor leagues. Galarraga was easily the best of the staff in 2008, finishing 13-7 as a rookie, but something as been amiss in his past several starts and he needs to get right if the Tigers are to use him in a major league role.

Despite consecutive losses to the Rockies over the weekend, the Detroit Tigers head into Memorial Day in first place in the AL Central, three games better than the Kansas City Royals. Detroit travels to Kansas City for a three game series starting tomorrow afternoon. The Tigers finished 2008 in last place in the division, one game worse than the perennial cellar-dwelling Royals. The main reason for the early season success for both teams has been the performance of their starting rotation. Kansas City, lead by Cy Young candidate Zach Grienke, leads the American League with a team ERA of 3.87, while Detroit ranks third with a 3.96. The Tigers, meanwhile rank second in the league in opponents batting average at .247, with the Royals on spot behind them at .256 (stats ESPN.com). The Tigers offense, currently ranked in the bottom half of the American League, will need continued strong performances from Miguel Cabrera and Brandon Inge, but will also need to see a return to form from Magglio Ordonez and injured DH Carlos Guillen to keep the pressure off the starting rotation, and to keep the pressure on the rest of the division, as the Tigers attempt to pull away.